Nepal First NDC (Archived)

         Government of Nepal

Ministry of Population and Environment
    NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS

                October 2016
A. BACKGROUND
Nepal, a least developed mountainous and land-locked country, is one of the least
contributors to the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). With aspirations of
development and improving the country’s economy; its development agenda is
constrained given that it is one of the most vulnerable countries to the adverse impacts of
climate change.

1. Nepal’s vulnerability to climate change
Nepal's mountainous and challenging topography and socio-economic conditions (ranks
145 on the Human Development Index, merely o ne-fo urth of its population live
b e lo w poverty line) make it a highly vulnerable country to climate change.

Nepal has experienced changes in temperature and mean precipitation. The country, with
the exception of some isolated pockets, has become warmer. Data on temperature trends
from 1975 to 2005 showed 0.060C rise in temperature annually whereas mean rainfall has
significantly decreased on an average of 3.7 mm (-3.2%) per month per decade. Under
various climate change scenarios for Nepal, mean annual temperatures are projected to
increase between 1.3-3.8°C by the 2060s and 1.8-5.8°C by the 2090s. Annual precipitation
reduction is projected to be in a range of 10 to 20 % across the country.

In Nepal’s Himalaya, total estimated ice reserve between 1977 and 2010 has decreased by
29 percent (129 km 3). The number of glacier lakes has increased by 11 percent and glaciers
recede on an average by 38 km2 per year. Hence, climate change has visible and
pronounced impacts on snows and glaciers that are likely to increase the Glacier Lakes
Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Nepal has suffered from increased frequency of extreme weather
events such as landslides, floods and droughts resulting to the loss of human lives as well
as high social and economic costs.

The 2013 study on Economic Assessment of Climate Change in Key Sectors (agriculture,
hydropower and water-induced disasters) has estimated direct cost of current climate
variability and extreme events equivalent to 1.5 to 2 percent of current GDP/year
(approximately USD 270-360 million/year in 2013 prices) and much higher in extreme
years. In the case of hydropower, the model projected lower dry season flows and thus
lower energy availability. The additional energy generation capacity needed to meet
future demand under this scenario, due to climate change, was estimated at 2800 MW by
2050 with an increase in costs of USD 2.6 billion (present value) for the period through to
2050. Overall, the economic costs of climate change in Nepal for these three sectors could
be equivalent to 2-3% of current GDP/year by mid-century.

In a nutshell, Nepal is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, water-
induced disasters and hydro-meteorological extreme events such as droughts, storms,
floods, inundation, landslides, debris flow, soil erosion and avalanches. Based on
National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) 2010, out of 75 districts, 29 districts are
highly vulnerable to natural hazard such as landslides, 22 districts to drought, 12 districts