Serbia First NDC

Intended Nationally Determined Contribution of the Republic of Serbia
Although non-Annex 1 Party to the Convention, the Republic of Serbia express its
willingness to contribute to global GHG emissions reduction in accordance with its capabilities,
national circumstances and development goals. Those contributions are even greater taking into
account extreme, already observed and projected climate change and its impacts on sectors and
systems.
According to the national analyses, the period 1960-2012 is characterized by an average
trend of mean annual temperature of 0.3°C per decade. Depending on the scenario, a rise in
temperature will ranging between 3.2 and 4 °C by the end of the century and precipitation deficit
of up to 20%. These will be followed by the intensification of extremes, particularly in regard to
temperatures.
The most vulnerable sectors are agriculture, hydrology, forestry, as well as human health
and biodiversity. From the mid-20th century, the river discharges in Serbia generally records a
negative trend. Average annual long-term trend in river discharges, excluding large rivers, is
negative and about -3% per decade, with variable spatial distribution. This reduction is expected
in the future, particularly after 2050, ranging from a few to over 20%. These changes will cause,
among other things, problems related to water availability, water quality and the intensity and
frequency of floods and droughts.
Droughts, insect invasions and the occurrence of forest fires have significantly influenced
forest ecosystems in R. Serbia. In the long run, climate change may cause a transformation of
entire forest ecosystems, changing the distribution and composition of Serbian forests. By the
end of the 21st century, about 90% of today's beech forests will be outside the bioclimatic niches
they inhabited in the 20th century and around 50% will be found in the zone where mass
mortality is likely to occur.
Climate change will affect the spatial variation in agroclimatic conditions, the conditions
for plant breeding and the selection of suitable varieties. Warming will also affect the phenology
of plants, leading to faster development. Certain scenarios for the period 2071-2100 indicate the
expected corn yield reduction from -52 to -22% for the whole territory of the Republic Serbia,
for conditions without irrigation. The impact on other crop and vegetable varieties can also be
expected.
As regards biodiversity and natural ecosystems, changes in climate may lead to changes
in the phenological cycles; morphological changes, physiology and behavior of species; loss of
existing habitats and emergence of new species; changes in the number and distribution of
species; increased number of pests and diseases; genetic changes and extinction of species
unable to adapt.
Impacts of climate change on health are becoming more pronounced in recent years.
During the heat wave in July 2007, increased mortality was recorded in Belgrade. Climate
change will certainly lead to changes in the distribution and increase in frequency of vector-
borne infectious diseases (malaria, dengue fever, West Nile virus, etc.), as well as the spread of
infectious diseases through water.
Since 2000 the Republic of Serbia has faced several significant extreme climate and
weather episodes that have caused significant material and financial losses as well as losses of
human lives. The two most prominent events are the drought in 2012 and the floods in 2014. The
drought in 2012 was particularly strong, and contributed to a decrease in yields of some crops by
50%. Estimates show that the droughts in 2000, 2003, 2007 and 2012 caused over 3.5 billion
Euros worth of damage and the floods in 2014 over 1.5 billion Euros. Estimates show that the
material damage incurred by forest fires in the period 2000-2009 is worth more than 300 million
Euros.
Taking into account the impacts of climate change and the need to reduce the risk thereof,
and recognizing the importance of its contribution to global GHG emission reduction, the