First Global Stocktake International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Submission

First Global Stocktake
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Submission
March 2023
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) appreciates the invitation from the SBI and SBSTA
Chairs to submit inputs for the first Global Stocktake. The IAEA is pleased to submit this contribution
related to the energy sector addressing the Chairs’ guiding questions for the technical assessment
component of the Stocktake.
Mitigation guiding questions
1. What is the collective progress in terms of the current implementation of, and ambition in,
mitigation actions towards achieving the goals defined in Articles 2.1(a)1 and 4.12 of the Paris
Agreement?
Nuclear energy remains the second largest source of low carbon electricity globally and has
historically avoided around 70 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO ) over recent decades (IEA
2
2022a). With over 400 nuclear power reactors in operation and more than 50 under construction
(IAEA 2023a), nuclear power is continuing its proven role in mitigation, underpinning electricity
sector decarbonization by operating reliably, on demand, and supporting increased shares of other
low carbon generation, particularly variable renewable sources such as solar PV and wind (IEA
2019; 2022a).
In addition to continued operation and new construction of nuclear power plants, important
progress has been made around the world in extending the operating lifetimes of existing plants,
maintaining “a solid foundation on which to build clean energy transitions” (IEA 2022a). From
2019 to 2022, policy and regulatory decisions have granted lifetime extensions to over 50
gigawatts (GW) of nuclear capacity, with decisions pending for a similar capacity (IEA 2022a).
Overall progress in terms of potential ambition in mitigation is reflected in the IAEA’s latest
projections of nuclear power deployment to 2050 (IAEA 2022a). The high case projections, which
consider country policies on climate change and the expressed intentions of countries for
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1 Article 2.1(a) of the Paris Agreement: “Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels
and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the
risks and impacts of climate change”
2 Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement: “In order to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2, Parties aim to reach global peaking
of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that peaking will take longer for developing country Parties, and to undertake
rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with best available science, so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources
and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century, on the basis of equity, and in the context of sustainable
development and efforts to eradicate poverty.”

expanding the use of nuclear power, see a doubling of world nuclear capacity by 2050 (to 873
GW). On the other hand, the low case projections see nuclear capacity in 2050 at around 400 GW
(essentially the same as today), assuming current market, technology and resource trends continue
and there are few additional changes in explicit laws, policies and regulations affecting nuclear
power.
2. Taking into account nationally determined contributions, long-term low GHG emission
development strategies and relevant commitments and initiatives, what are the projected global
GHG emissions, and the emission reductions still needed, in 2030 and 2050 in order to achieve
the goals defined in Articles 2.1(a) and 4.1 of the Paris Agreement?
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2022a), International
Energy Agency (IEA 2022b) and UN Environment Programme (UNEP 2022), nationally
determined contributions (NDCs) remain inadequate relative to the goals outlined in Articles
2.1(a) and 4.1. With full implementation of unconditional NDCs, it is estimated by UNEP that